The presidential election in Poland is scheduled for May 2025. Many see this not just as a vote for the presidency but as a critical test of support—or opposition—for the Civil Coalition Party, which came to power in the fall of 2023. While political analyses remain fraught with uncertainty, a few observations help to understand the unfolding dynamics.

The central political rivalry is between Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, representing the Civil Coalition, and Karol Nawrocki, endorsed by the Law and Justice Party (PiS). Nawrocki, a historian and the head of the Institute of National Remembrance—a body researching World War II and communist-era crimes—has limited public recognition. However, the same was true of the current president, Andrzej Duda, at the start of his campaign. Trzaskowski, by contrast, is already a well-known figure, having served as Warsaw’s mayor and a former member of both the national and European parliaments, although his popularity is not without its critics. Another notable candidate is Szymon Hołownia, a television personality currently serving as Speaker of the Sejm. The Left ("Lewica") has yet to announce its candidate, but rumors suggest that Magda Biejat, Deputy Marshal of the Senate, may enter the race.

If no candidate secures an outright majority, the second-round run-off will likely be a contest between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki. Trzaskowski currently leads in the polls, but recent history tempers confidence. In 2015, Andrzej Duda trailed far behind Bronisław Komorowski in early polling, only to reverse the trend shortly before the election. The difference at the time was so stark that Adam Michnik, editor-in-chief of Gazeta Wyborcza, famously said that Komorowski could only lose if he "ran over a pregnant nun at a crosswalk while drunk." This time, commentators seem far more cautious in their predictions.

For now, one thing is certain: uncertainty dominates. A significant factor will be public fatigue with the Civil Coalition government, a phenomenon common after a party has held power long enough to become the target of blame for societal issues. The upcoming election represents a pivotal moment for the government, whose legislative agenda is often stymied by President Duda’s veto power, as they lack the votes to override it. While Nawrocki leans heavily on patriotic rhetoric, Trzaskowski is perceived as more pro-European and better aligned with Brussels. On the issue of the war in Ukraine, however, both candidates firmly support Ukraine and pledge to advocate for its cause on the international stage.

As the campaign heats up, strong partisanship emerges, yet Polish political culture differs from that of the United States. Poles are generally less likely to display overt support, such as placing campaign signs on their homes or cars. Many also express dissatisfaction with their choices, framing voting as a civic duty rather than a source of enthusiasm. Poland, like many nations, remains deeply polarized. However, in moments of national crisis requiring unity, Poles have demonstrated an ability to come together. Let us hope that, regardless of who wins, the years ahead will bring fewer crises and more examples of solidarity.

About the author

Ewa Rejman is a lawyer from Poland and J.S.D Candidate at Notre Dame Law School. She received her L.L.M. in International Law and Human Rights from Notre Dame University (2023 – magna cum laude) and master’s degree in law from the University of Wrocław, Poland (2021). In her research, she focuses on socioeconomic rights, religious freedom, and bioethics. Her dissertation in progress explores the protection of motherhood in international law. Before coming to Notre Dame, she worked at the Holy See Mission to the United Nations in New York, and with the human rights NGO in Geneva. She also served as a Chapter Coordinator for the World Youth Alliance Poland and as a legal analyst for the Higher Academy of Justice System.

Originally published by Ewa Rejman at eitw.nd.edu on January 14, 2025.