Weather-related disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, floods and droughts displace about three times as many people as conflicts and violence do worldwide. From 2008 to 2018, around 263 million people were forced by extreme weather events to move within their own countries’ borders, a number that is expected to rise as climate change increases the frequency and intensity of weather-related disasters.

A new study by University of Notre Dame researcher Sisi Meng shows that environmental governance — policies, rules and norms that govern human behavior and scientific information needed for decision-making — can mitigate this displacement.

“Environmental governance builds a critical long-term resilience to natural disasters,” said Meng, assistant teaching professor of economics and technology for development in the Keough School of Global Affairs and a core faculty affiliate of the school's Pulte Institute for Global Development. “With the impact of climate change, disasters are going to be more frequent, and just responding to a single event every time is no longer feasible.”

Meng’s study, which was published in Communications Earth & Environment, an open-access Nature journal, showed that environmental governance is critical for reducing human displacement due to weather-related events.

To measure environmental governance, Meng used the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) global country index, which measures 192 countries’ resilience to climate change across 45 indicators ranging from water security to economic opportunity to governmental corruption. Meng specifically examined countries’ readiness score, which measures their ability to leverage investments and convert them to climate adaptation actions. A country’s readiness score is determined by its government, its economy and its social structures — the three primary actors in environmental decision-making and behavior.

Overall, Meng’s analysis underscores the pivotal role of environmental governance, as measured by the three ND-GAIN readiness scores. The findings are strong and consistent across both large- and small-scale events and hold true for countries at various income levels. Government readiness — the capacity of a state actor to manage risk — was identified as the most crucial component for mitigating weather-related disaster displacements in higher-income countries. (Government readiness is measured by variables such as political stability and nonviolence, corruption control, regulatory quality and rule of law.)

Middle-income countries relied on both government and economic readiness, and lower-income countries depended on government, economic and social readiness — socioeconomic conditions that can enable climate adaptation efforts.

“Our findings provide compelling evidence supporting the need for enhanced environmental governance to minimize the human impact of disaster shocks,” Meng said. “This study also uniquely emphasizes a humanitarian perspective, highlighting the impact on displaced populations and the critical need for governance structures that address the social and human costs of weather-related events.” The study is the first to investigate links between environmental governance and displacement from a global perspective and was funded by the Notre Dame Environmental Change Initiative, which houses the ND-GAIN program.

This research highlights several key policy implications, Meng said. First, the findings highlight the critical importance of capacity-building for government readiness. Second, countries must prioritize economic development to adequately respond to disaster displacement, Meng said. Finally, in low-income countries, enhancing social conditions by addressing social inequality, improving communications infrastructure and promoting education also can mitigate displacement.

Meng said that by highlighting the magnitude and complexities of disaster displacement on a global scale, she hopes to spur the development of international policies and cooperation strategies.

“Climate change and its effects do not adhere to national boundaries,” Meng said. “Coming together to create comprehensive strategies across diverse regions is critical.”

Top photo by Dibakar Roy on Unsplash.

Originally published by Renée LaReau at keough.nd.edu on September 27, 2024.